Ecuador has a drought problem and given the close relationship that the climate system has with the country's economic, social and agro-productive development, drought has become synonymous with disasters, financial recession, migration and poverty, with the agro-productive sector, the hydroelectric sector and the water and sanitation sector being the most affected.
Therefore, it is imperative to develop tools designed for drought monitoring, early warning and assessment that allow decision-makers at national, sub-national and local levels to monitor spatially and temporally, the probability of occurrence of severe drought episodes in Ecuador and to implement corrective actions.
As part of the National Drought Plan, there is a tool called "Monitor Nacional de Sequía (MONSE)" which at the moment only issues maps that detect the current state and evolution of drought. The integration of a module that evaluates the probability of occurrence of drought events to the current National Drought Monitor of Ecuador will allow timely decision making to address potential drought episodes. This technical assistance will contribute to:
- The integration of a module that presents drought occurrence scenarios using parametric statistical methods as an input for the generation of drought risk scenarios is an important step in the development of drought risk scenarios.
- Definition and prioritisation for the incorporation of at least one additional indicator to those by implemented in the current MONSE.
- Generation and visualisation of drought scenarios with time horizons of 3, 6, 9 and 12 months
- Extend the current resolution of MONSE (28 km) to the maximum possible.
- Bias correction to refine MONSE using information from volunteer observers, ground stations and drought impact information from different sectors
- Training of officials from INAMHI, MAATE and other institutions to ensure understanding of the monitor and its use.
- Identification of the weights of each current and future indicator in MONSE.
- Generation of drought reports or bulletins.
- The definition of an action / mitigation plan to increase the resilience of affected communities.
- The promotion of the country's national innovation system through the articulation of different relevant actors for the reduction of drought impacts.
- Definition and prioritisation of specific products (such as newsletters; among others) for sectors interest such as agriculture, energy, drinking water, among others.
- Identification of volunteer observers in the framework of the Volunclima platform for the assessment and continuous improvement of MONSE
- Coordination of the Drought Task Force tables to assess the risk and discuss actions and generate participatory newsletter.