Background
Bangladesh is one of the most disaster-prone countries in the world, ranking fifth globally, and faces significant flooding risks due to its flat topography and location at the confluence of major rivers in South Asia. Each year, 20-30% of the country is affected by floods, with catastrophic floods reaching up to 70%. These floods lead to disruption of livelihoods and severe damage to crops, livestock, and infrastructure. Climate change, population growth, and human activities have made flooding more frequent and intense. The country’s flood management strategy, which shifted in the 2000s, now combines both structural and non-structural approaches, with an emphasis on flood forecasting and early warning systems.
The Bangladesh Water Development Board’s Flood Forecasting and Warning Center (FFWC) generates flood forecasts and issues warnings, though current 3-5 day forecasts often fall short of effective planning. There is a strong demand for longer-range forecasts, especially from the agricultural sector. While FFWC collaborates with the Regional Integrated Multi-Hazard Early Warning System (RIMES) to provide 1-10 day forecasts, technical improvements are needed to enhance forecast accuracy. FFWC's flood forecast products face challenges in reaching remote, flood-prone communities due to weak dissemination links and a lack of expertise to interpret the information. Efforts to improve communication systems, such as the FFWC website and interactive voice response system, are ongoing, but further development is required for broader accessibility and localized forecasts.
CTCN Support
The CTCN support aims to develop a mid to long-term hydrological forecasting system for the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna river basins in Bangladesh, leveraging advanced technologies to enhance flood and drought risk management. By incorporating the VIC-River Routing Model and weather forecast data from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), this support will improve the understanding of hydrological responses in the region. The enhanced forecasting system will enable more accurate and longer-range flood predictions, directly contributing to better preparedness and response strategies. The ultimate goal is to reduce flood and drought risks, thereby improving food security, safeguarding livelihoods, and supporting sustainable development in Bangladesh.
Expected Outcome
The project shall establish a robust historical meteorological and hydrological forecast database, enabling the assessment of forecast accuracy and improving the reliability of future predictions. It will enhance the capabilities of the Flood Forecasting and Warning Center (FFWC) under the Bangladesh Water Development Board (BWDB) by transferring advanced knowledge and technology for mid to long-term flood predictions, strengthening Bangladesh’s capacity to manage flood risks. Additionally, the project will develop a comprehensive information dissemination system, ensuring that timely, accurate flood forecasts reach all relevant stakeholders, including remote communities, for effective planning and response.
