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Emission allowances under the proposal of the "South North Dialogue - equity in the greenhouse"

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N. Höhne
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This report is to provide an overview of the emission allowances for country groups that result from the proposal of the South North Dialogue – Equity in the Greenhouse”. The Proposal defines six groups of countries that should take differentiated types of commitments in a future climate regime and defines a methodology to decide, which countries belongs to which group and provides a table of the respective countries. The groups are:industrialised (Annex I) countriesdeveloped countries which pay for costs of developing countries (Annex II) the newly industrialised countries (NICs)the rapidly developing countries (RIDCs), which would have to take on quantitative mitigation commitmentsthe other developing countries (Other DCs)the least developing countries (LDCs), which only have qualitative mitigation commitments The paper goes on to describe a tool for quantifying the emissions allowances for each group under three scenarios:the “political willingness scenario” which selected assumptions on reductions, which could be politically acceptable by 2020 and calculated corresponding emission allowancesa “stabilisation scenario” limiting atmospheric CO2 concentration at 450 ppmv and one leading to 400 ppmv CO2 concentrationThe results of the South North Dialogue proposal are then compared with other approaches. The following conclusions are drawn: The “political willingness” scenario would require ambitious reductions for the Annex I countries, including the EU and the USA until 2020. Under this scenario, stabilization of CO2 concentration at 450 ppmv is kept within reach in 2020, but substantial reductions have to occur after 2020 (global reduction of -3% per year for several decades). Under this scenario, the option of keeping CO2 concentrations constantly below 400 ppmv would be out of reach in 2020. (With drastic reductions after 2020, CO2 concentration could rise above 400 ppmv and then decline and stabilize at 400 ppmv).The 450 ppmv scenario, which stretches beyond 2020, requires more ambitious reduction by Annex I countries in 2020. It also requires that almost all countries that were RIDCs in 2020 have to move to the group of NICs as of 2030 to reach the low emission levels in 2050.Under the 400 ppmv scenario, requires yet more ambitious reduction by all countries, which are at the limit of what some would call realistic. Annex II countries would need to cut emissions in half by 2020 and RIDCs and NICs would follow quickly.The South North Proposal assumes action by developed countries first and delayed action by developing countries (as the Multistage and the CDC approach). It therefore requires more reductions by Annex I countries and less action by Non-Annex I countries by 2020 compared to approaches that assume immediate global participation (C&C, Triptych). Especially countries in the group of “other DCs”, which has a large share of the global total, are assumed here not to deviate from their reference emissions in 2020 under the South North Proposal. Some of these countries would have to participate under the other approaches.NB: free registration is required to view this document.