This paper analyses the implications of climate change on production of four crop categories (rice, wheat, pulses and coarse cereals) for ten large food-grain producing states in India over the period 2030–2050. Panel econometric estimation technique is used to model supply response, and these estimates are subsequently used along with yield and climate parameter projections to derive the expected impacts.

The study finds that the impacts are considerable in aggregate, although they differ substantially in terms of the specific crop, the region (state) and the time period. The observed variations are important to quantify since these have implications for effective planning for adaptation. In certain instances, the adverse implications are reversed over time, while in some these persist. The study further innovates by weighting outcomes with vulnerability indicators at the state level, in order to compare the outcomes in alternative socio-economic terms.