This report presents economic modelling of the impact of alternative carbon price scenarios on the road transport sector in Australia out to 2050. It examines four main scenarios — two reference scenarios and two scenarios that investigate the impact of alternative carbon price levels on the deployment of alternative road fuels and vehicles. In addition, five sensitivity cases model the impact of a lower carbon price, greater fuel coverage, and high and low oil prices. This report documents the main findings of the modelling for the reference and sensitivity scenarios. Section two provides an overview of the modelling framework used in the scenario analysis. Section three defines the scenario and sensitivity case assumptions preceding the discussion of scenario results in Section four. Section five compares and contrasts the modelling results with Australia’s Low Pollution Future.

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