The effects of climate change on the overall economy necessitate taking into account backward and forward linkages of agriculture; however, the number of studies that relate climate change to agricultural production in Turkey through a sector or economy wide model is limited. The main research question of this study is quantifying the effects of climate change on agricultural sector and regional economy by taking into account the interregional interactions and dynamics of the adjustment to the new equilibrium under well-established climate scenarios for Turkey.

The document indicates that for Turkey, a climate change strikes the economy by drastically changing the production and hence prices of commodities. As a result, agriculture and food production is severely affected by the shock and prices of these commodities increase sharply. Correspondingly, the trade balance of the country worsens, and the need for agricultural and food imports become more severe and this in turn is likely to create concerns about food security.

Given these points, the authors develop an enhanced CGE (computable general equilibrium) model, utilising various data sources to regionalise the 2008 national statistics under several assumptions. The results support the fact that climate change mitigation should be considered as an integrated issue that would cause complicated results. Hence, any climate change mitigation policy needs to be region specific but should also consider the interaction among the regions.