This rapid desk-based study provides evidence for understanding the relative strength of climate signals compared to other expected development results. The report summarises overall findings in a ‘traffic light’ rating (red, amber, green) and sets out some of the contested nature of findings. It also summarises the evidence to understand climate signals as drivers of development. The work is intended to help decision makers understand some of the trends that are arising, and how this is impacting vulnerability to climate change in specific contexts.

The study has been structured in order to briefly review the relative strength of climate signals across four thematic areas:

health, with a focus on malaria
agriculture, considering cash crops and food security
urban and transport infrastructure aspects of economic development; and
disaster resilience, including an analysis of migration, as this was considered an indication where adaptation strategies were limited