Taking into account the multiple determinants of climate-sensitive health outcomes, this document provides basic and flexible guidance for conducting a national or subnational assessment of current and future vulnerability to climate change health risks, and of policies and programmes that could increase resilience. This assessment is designed to provide information for decision-makers regarding the extent and magnitude of likely health risks attributable to climate change, as well as priority policies and programmes to prevent and reduce the severity of future impacts. The steps for this assessment may be implemented in the order presented, or selected steps may be undertaken to meet the needs of specific populations. It could also be quantitative or qualitative, or a mixture of both.
The first step in the process involve scoping and designing the vulnerability and adaptation assessment: defining the geographical range and health outcomes of interest, identifying the questions to be addressed and steps to be used, identifying the policy context for the assessment, and establishing a stakeholder process. Special guidance is given for determining which stakeholders to include in an assessment, and making a communications plan. The second step is conducting the vulnerability and adaptation assessment. Guidance is provided for identifying vulnerable populations and regions, describing risk distribution using spatial mapping, analysing the relationships between current and past weather/climate conditions and health outcomes, identifying trends in climate change-related exposures, taking account of interactions between environmental and socio-economic determinants of health, considering health system adaptive capacity and resilience, etc. The third step focuses on understanding the future health risks and impacts under climate change – describing how the risks of climate-sensitive health outcomes (including the most vulnerable populations and regions) may change over coming decades, irrespective of climate change; and estimating the possible additional burden of adverse health outcomes due to climate change. Guidance is also provided regarding the selection of qualitative or quantitative methods for projecting future health risks. The fourth step addresses prioritising and implementing health protection in climate change adaptation. The authors describe adapting to the health risks of climate change as essentially being a risk management process. The guidance for this step includes, among other things, the identification of possible actions to reduce the potential health risks of adaptation and greenhouse gas mitigation policies and programmes, and developing and proposing heath adaptation plans. The authors highlight the importance of establishing an iterative process for managing and monitoring the health risks of climate change – saying that they should be designed with greater flexibility. They also call for continued research into changing conditions and their implications, as well as funding for monitoring and evaluation programmes to measure key indicators of disease burdens and intervention effectiveness.
The conclusion of this publication addresses a number of topics, including certain factors that influence the ability of a nation or community to identify and implement effective adaptation policies and programmes, and maximising opportunities to engage with other sectors in designing climate resilient pathways.