This paper describes a process for creating a new set of scenarios to understand future climate change. It notes that the objective of generating these scenarios is to better support policy decisions that are robust under a wide range of possible futures. Tracing the genesis of scenario generation, the paper notes that the first generation of scenarios was developed and applied in a linear cause and effect form, moving from socioeconomic factors to climate to associated impacts. However, this process was plagued with massive time delays from the development of the emissions scenarios and their integration into climate model outputs, to their final use in impact assessments. As a much more time-efficient process, the research community has now developed a parallel track for the generation of new scenarios that directly begins with identification of selected scenarios of Radiative Forcing for climate modelling exercises. The authors conclude that this new integrated approach for developing and applying scenarios for climate change research can provide crucial insights into the complex interactions between climate processes. Thereby contributing towards assessing the potential costs and benefits of different levels of adaptation and mitigation.

Publication date
Type of publication
Document
Objective
Mitigation
Approach
Community based
Collection
Eldis
Cross-sectoral enabler
Governance and planning
CTCN Keyword Matches
Mitigation in the pulp and paper industry
Pasture management
Climate scenario development
Climate change monitoring