In Tunisia the agricultural sector represents about 20 % of employment and 12% of GDP. Therefore, understanding the impact of climate change on agricultural crops is instrumental for decision makers before deciding to subsidise the affected farmers or switching to irrigated agricultural activities.

Tunisia, which belongs both to Mediterranean and sub-Saharan countries, has an attractive geographical position. Consequently, the South of Tunisia, given its Saharan nature, is affected by both its geographical position and the climate warming. However, the North of Tunisia benefits from a Mediterranean climate characterised by a hot and dry summer and a relatively rainy winter.

This paper proposes an original empirical investigation of the long run versus short run impacts of climate change on the Tunisian agriculture sector. It finds that annual temperature decreases both cereals and date production with an exception in highland areas. In addition, annual rainfall has a positive effect on cereals but its shortages in the south negatively affect production in this region. The short run climate effect is smaller than the long run effect.

Rainfall has a weak positive effect which is compensated by the threat of the brutal temperature increase during the last decades. This paper calls for the implementation of a public policy privileging and subsidising the threatened areas.