Anthropogenic climate change poses perhaps the most complex policy issue faced yet by the global community, moreover, one that is fraught with existential consequences for humankind at one level, and with major implications for the future division of global economic labour at another.

Mitigation of GHG emissions will, beyond a fairly modest level, involve appreciable economic costs to a society. On the other hand, the adverse impacts of climate change would be felt in diverse sectors which are at the core of livelihood concerns, especially of the poor – agriculture, water resources, coastal resources, vector borne disease, “natural” calamities, etc. This Technical Report describes the energy-economic models developed with MoEF support, and the results of initial simulations with these models as well as the results of two other studies recently conducted in India.

The results of 4 of the 5 studies, which vary in terms of model structure/methodology, assumptions, and data, besides differences in the definitions of the Illustrative Scenario, (whose common feature is that no new GHG mitigation policies are put in place) show that India’s per-capita CO2e emissions in 2030/31 would be between 2.77 and 3.9 tons per-capita, which is well below the 2005 global average of 4.22 tons per-capita. The fifth study projects the 2031 emissions at 5 tons per-capita, i.e. a little above the 2005 global average.

Further, both the energy intensity of the Indian economy, as well as the CO2e intensity of the Indian economy will fall continuously till 2030-31 in the Illustrative Scenarios, as revealed by all 5 studies. On the other hand, the structure of the economy, policy and regulatory regime, and energy endowments, together ensure that India’s growth over the next two decades, while rapid, would remain inherently sustainable.

The paper concludes by stating that fact that significant differences still arise between the results of the different studies show that it is not feasible to unambiguously define any “baseline” or “business-as-usual” GHGs trajectory for the country. However, even without any new policies for GHG abatement and given the structure of the Indian economy, its current and projected GHG growth rates, and its energy endowments, its GHG emissions will increase in a runaway manner over time.