This study concludes that results show an overall global net increase in climate suitability and a net increase in the population at risk from malaria, but with large uncertainties. The study evaluated three malaria outcome metrics at global and regional levels: climate suitability, additional population at risk and additional person-months at risk across the model outputs. The malaria projections were based on five different global climate models, each run under four emission scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways, RCPs) and a single population projection. Modelling uncertainty was also investigated and associated with future projections of populations at risk for malaria owing to climate change. The spatial limits of malaria distribution and seasonal activity are sensitive to climate factors, as well as the local capacity to control the disease.

Publication date
Type of publication
Document
Objective
Adaptation
Collection
Eldis
Sectors
Human health
CTCN Keyword Matches
Malaria protection and prevention programs