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Growth Options and Poverty Reduction in Ethiopia: An Economy-Wide Model Analysis

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This study focuses on which agricultural subsectors are important in Ethiopia"s economic growth and poverty reduction and what kind of agricultural and nonagricultural growth is needed to achieve the millennium development goal of halving the incidence of poverty by 2015. A spatially disaggregated, economy-wide model was developed, enabling the analysis of growth and poverty reduction linkages at national and regional levels using national household surveys, agricultural sample surveys, geographic information systems, and other national and regional data. The study reveals that agriculture can play a central role in decreasing poverty and increasing growth in Ethiopia. Within the agriculture, growth in cereals and other staple crops should receive priority. Agricultural growth also requires concurrent investments in roads and other market conditions. At the subnational level, similar growth rates within agricultural subsectors have different effects on poverty, necessitating regionally based strategies for growth and poverty reduction.