In an urgent call to action, The Environmental Justice Foundation have published this report analysing the potential for climate change to increase conflict in vulnerable states. The key message of the report is that climate change is as much a human rights issue as it is an environmental issue, with the potential for existing issues to be exacerbated, and combining with new problems arising in terms of resource depletion, food and water security, and state security. Following an introduction to climate change’s importance to security, both social and environmental, the report takes a broad look at a number of inter-related sectors that are vulnerable to climate-related conflict stress. Topics covered include: threats of conflict resulting from attempts to claim resources in the Arctic; fresh water as a source of growing conflict and political control; the huge potential impact of forced migration; potential for intra- and inter-state war; and even the collapse of states. Sudan is a particular focus, with the authors noting how the multiple legacies of climate-related conflict – arrested development, poverty, inequality, etc – can often lead to a relapse into violence.
The report notes a number of key findings:
While climate change will not be the sole cause of conflict in the future, it will act as a threat amplifier whilst also acting as a tipping point for a number of other issues.
This is particularly true in areas of scarce resources, where a history of marginalisation will likely entrench or expand unequal systems of entitlement.
Water scarcity is of particular concern, especially given the degree of cooperation that is likely to be required. This will likely drive tensions, with access to water used as a political tool.
In 2012, one person every second was displaced by climate change, presenting pressing operational and geopolitical challenges, and threats to social wellbeing, human rights and even state stability.
Post-conflict states are particularly vulnerable, with potential for conflict to cross-borders.
The EJF emphasises that mitigation investment now is also an investment in a more secure future for vulnerable people.
Climate change must be recognised as a human rights issue as well as an environmental issue, with the UNHRC urged to take positive action to safeguard rights.