Exploring the role of climate science in supporting long-term adaptation and decision-making in sub-Saharan Africa is the title of this Climate Knowledge Development Network working paper, synthesising research drawn from participants of the Future Climate for Africa (FCFA) workshops in London and Arusha, as well as a review of articles and ‘grey’ (unpublished) literature on knowledge gaps and areas needed to support the capacity of African decision-makers. The paper seeks to advance scientific understanding of climate change’s long-term impact in sub-Saharan Africa; in doing so, it is hoped that and the need for such focus to be integrated into the planning and implementation of long-term policy decisions is made clearer. The paper notes that most resources for research and capacity building in the region focuses on immediate issues, leaving numerous gaps including for long-term issues. Over-reliance on poorly-captured models that struggle to predict accurately the complex relationship between land, sea, and atmosphere, is joined by an apparent systemic bias in the simulations to bring a note of caution to present predictive capacities. This requires more research to fill in existing gaps, both in terms of knowledge and capacity building. Some of the key roles influencing long-term policy decisions are profiled, such as the Director of National Meteorological Service in Senegal, are profiled, before the structure and proceedings of the two workshops are summarised.
The report outlines a number of recommendations for addressing knowledge and capacity gaps in Africa:
Generating new knowledge and promoting African-led science and scientific capacity - knowledge gaps exist across a number of subject disciplines, including discrepancies between models and observation. Each requires an advance in knowledge that should be African-led where possible, and utilising African knowledge infrastructure and institutions. Of particular concern is a perceived lack of understanding of climate science’s inherent limitations.
Promoting better use and uptake of existing research - two strategies are suggested: better translation of existing research; and improving the effectiveness of the science-policy interface. Mobilising scientific knowledge for assessing long-term maladaptation possibilities is key.
Maximising value added - Engaging and leveraging influential stakeholders, such as powerful finance and development ministries, to promote the integration of adaptation into long-term decision-making is important. Communication between different stakeholder contexts needs to be opened up, with incentive, priority, and language barriers overcome.