This report assesses near-term electric vehicle market trends to inform on how governments might optimally evolve their electric vehicle incentive programs to sustain market growth. The authors analyze prevailing per-vehicle purchasing incentives and how government outlays increase to maintain these incentives as the market grows. They then assess how electric vehicle costs—for varying electric ranges—are reduced in the approximate time frame of 2020–2025 due to increased battery production. From these cost reductions, the authors analyze when the consumer proposition might tip in favor of electric vehicles, based on the first-owner cost of operation for seven major electric vehicle markets in North America, Europe and Asia.

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