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Europe’s Evolving Passenger Vehicle Fleet: Fuel Use and Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Emissions Scenarios through 2035

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Kristian Bodek, John Heywood
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This study developed fleet models of France, Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom to evaluate fuel use and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions trends in these countries over the next 30 years. The models were run under three hypothetical scenarios, entitled No Change, Diesels Dominate, and Alternative Technologies Emerge. The scenarios and fleet models were used to evaluate the feasibility of proposed new vehicle GHG emission targets, the evolution of the diesel to gasoline fuel use ratio, and the relative ability for changes in the sales mix, emphasis on reducing fuel consumption and biofuels share to reduce fleet-wide fuel use, and GHG emissions over the next 30 years.