With the majority of the literature about sustainable urban energy transitions having been focused on developed country contexts, it is crucial that forward-planning in developing countries by supported by research to ensure these quickly growing urban centres do not lock-in to unsustainable systems. Supporting African Municipalities in Sustainable Energy Transitions (SAMSET) is a project seeking to develop a knowledge exchange framework for supporting local and national bodies involved in energy planning in effectively transitioning to sustainable urban energy use. This paper examines various energy futures modelling tools to identify which is most suitable for the SAMSET project.
The SAMSET project aims to support six African cities in three countries: Ghana, Uganda, and South Africa. The high levels of poverty, lack of access to modern energy services, and the inclusion of informal energy activities are all characteristics that make developing contexts distinct from developed contexts. Combined with rapid growth and a need to align energy strategies within a development context means that the focus needs to be more on energy efficiency, and on decoupling economic activity from emissions, rather than energy conservation and reduction. The right modelling tool will reflect this context, as well as the associated socio-economic and technical characteristics.
Historically, energy models have either taken a bottom-up or top-down approach. Top-down approaches are deemed by the authors as unsuitable for SAMSET because of their reliance on historical patterns, and because they capture aggregate demand that does not allow the detail required to delineate the diversity inherent in developing contexts. In contrast, bottom-up approaches take a disaggregated approach focused on end-users and technology, enabling greater characterisation of consumption behaviour and technology choices by different income categories.
Having assessed the appropriate modelling tools in the context of the study objectives and questions, data availability and quality, the capacity of users, and the country-specific context, the paper recommends that the bottom-up approach of the Stockholm Environment Institute’s LEAP software be used in partnership with academic institutes. This is due the advantages of flexibility of data inputs, the easy accessibility of software, and its ability to construct different types of scenarios relevant to the project objectives. LEAP has been successfully used in studies all around the world, including Mexico City, Bangkok, Tehran, and Cape Town in examining various energy reduction strategies, shifting fuel use in industry and homes to natural gas, or to asses the combined effect of energy reduction strategies.