A larger number of countries are exposed to a potential trade shock emerging from a change in US oil imports including Angola, Congo, and Nigeria. An increase in fracking in China with the same size in the trade shock would double the effect. The total estimated effects from a reduction in US oil imports from African countries amount to US$32 billion. The net impacts on exporters will depend on their ability to find other markets, and the conditions under which they do so.

The primary objective of this report is to examine the economic impacts (actual and potential) on developing countries of current transformations in global energy markets associated with the growth in exploitation of shale gas and tight oil.

The fracking revolution is also likely to have major geopolitical impacts. The US and China stand to benefit from the prospect of greater energy independence. Europe will be faced with an imperative

to reduce its dependence on energy imports from Russia and elsewhere, and will face various options for doing this. Russia, the Middle East and OPEC are expected to lose in political terms. For non-oil exporting developing countries the economic impacts can be expected to be broadly positive, through growth effects and reductions in the cost of importing energy.