Biofuels and the Poor: Global Impact Pathways of Biofuels on Agricultural Markets

This study seeks to assess the future impacts of biofuel production on regional agricultural and related sectors with a specific focus on the vulnerable regions of developing nations. Using a modification of the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) modelling platform to account for the global interactions of regional biofuel and food markets, the analysis shows that biofuel production levels depend on the assumption about the future price of energy and the nature of the substitutability between biofuels and petroleum-based transport fuels. It concludes that to the extent that agriculture is a key sector in starting growth and addressing poverty, biofuels can be a positive force.