Utility Transformation: Scenario Planning Process and Outputs
Objective: Support utilities’ understanding of the pace of change in the energy sector, and inform intentional decisions to capture value and opportunities in a changingenergy landscape.
The Advanced Energy Centre facilitates thefollowing process to achieve its core objective:
- Trends: Identify trends of energy system transformation
- Trends are identified from a horizon scan of topics surfaced in key industry publications and conferences, customized interviews with senior leaders relevant to the clients’ business, and a qualitative cross-impact analysis of key trends, drivers, and issues. E.g. The electricity generation
mix is changing or environmental stresses lead to greater need for resiliency
- Trends are identified from a horizon scan of topics surfaced in key industry publications and conferences, customized interviews with senior leaders relevant to the clients’ business, and a qualitative cross-impact analysis of key trends, drivers, and issues. E.g. The electricity generation
- Uncertainty: Identify trends that have a high degree of impact and uncertainty
- Through a facilitated workshop, participants will identify priority trends per the example below. This produced a list of priority trends, namely, those with a high degree of impact on businesses and varying degrees of certainty.
- Drivers: Consider what is driving these trends
- Through executive interviews and a literature/media scan, the Advanced Energy Centre considers insights from a diverse range of energy players, and trusted thought leaders to identify key trends that indicate sector transformation.
- Scenarios: Develop plausible and future scenarios
- Possible futures are developed based on the underlying drivers of change in the energy sector, as well as trends with a high degree of impact and a high degree of uncertainty on utilities businesses.
- Strategy: Draw strategic insights
- Eg. If grid parity happens as early as 2021, what insights does this provide into questions around future-ready business, or future-ready infrastructure?
As a neutral third party in the scenario planning process, the Advanced Energy Centre ensures that research is holistic- capturing political, economic,regulatory, environmental, social, and technical datapoints. The Advanced Energy Centre will also conduct interviews using a specialized scenario planning approach to draw key insights from industry experts.Insights will be captured in an anonymized format for use during the scenario planning process.
For more information: https://www.marsdd.com/systems-change/advanced-energy-centre/utility-tr…
Contact information:
Jesika Briones, Manager International Programs