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Forecasting Droughts in East Africa

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This study evaluated the use of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) products in forecasting droughts in East Africa. ECMWF forecasts added value to the statistical forecasts produced during the Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forums, which was the present operational product. Complementing the raw precipitation forecasts with SPI provided additional information on the spatial extent and intensity of the drought event.