This report investigates what large-scale global bioenergy production could look like. It gives a representation of bioenergy in a global economy-wide model. The results, from various policy scenarios, are taken to show that lignocellulosic (LC) ethanol may become the major form of bioenergy, if its production costs fall by amounts predicted in a recent survey and ethanol blending constraints disappear by 2030; however, if its costs remain higher than expected or the ethanol blend wall continues to bind, the report argues that bioelectricity and bioheat may prevail. It states that higher LC ethanol costs may also result in expanded production of first-generation biofuels (ethanol from sugarcane and corn) so that they remain in the fuel mix through 2050.
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