This research report examines the future climate variability of hydrologic regimes and water resources of the Upper Blue Nile River Basin,and the potential impacts of dam operation policies both in the basin and to downstream countries in the 2050s.This report presents three steps for analysing climate change impacts on hydrology and water resources. The first is the construction of the climate change scenarios using multiple general circulation models (GCMs) to understand the current precipitation and temperature patterns.

The diversity of small-scale irrigation on the Fogera plains, in the Ethiopian Blue Nile river basin, includes small dams, hand-dug wells, ponds and river diversion systems. These facilities, however, receive little political attention in negotiations over Nile resources, which focus primarily on large dams. Nevertheless, they are important in relation to their impact on local livelihoods, as well as their potential to contribute to adaptive capacity in the light of anticipated climate change.