This publication looks at current trends in land-use change and how things may change in the future as a result of climate change around the globe. The authors provide information on current efforts in sustainable management, case studies of ongoing efforts and suggestions for responsible management.
Change in land use practices
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This paper presents a conceptual framework for assessing the impacts of land use changes in the upper Ewaso Ng"iro river basin in Kenya. It is based on a people-water-ecosystem nexus, and it presents the key issues, their interactions and how they can be addressed. The paper presents hydrological assessment of up-scaling rainwater harvesting conceptual framework, which assesses the impacts of land use changes on hydrological regime in a river basin.
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This tool was used to investigate the response of the headwater hydrology of the Mara River to scenarios of continued land use change and projected climate change. Under the data-scarce conditions of the basin, model performance was improved using satellite-based estimated rainfall data, which may also improve the usefulness of runoff models in other parts of East Africa.
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In this study, an integrated modelling framework was assembled to investigate potential impacts of agricultural expansion and climate changes on irrigation water requirements in Taita Hills, Kenya. The framework comprised a land use change simulation model, a reference evapotranspiration model and synthetic precipitation data sets generated through a Monte Carlo simulation. In order to generate plausible climate change scenarios, outputs from General Climate Models were used as reference to perturbing the Monte Carlo simulations.